Fig. 5

Relationships between cumulative carbon (C) emission and changes in global mean surface air temperature in the experiments of abruptly doubled CO₂ concentration (FULL^{2 × CO2} 1000 years; black) and that where CO₂ concentration is increased by 1 % year⁻¹ (1pctCO2; 140 years; gray) by two ESMs (MIROC-ESM and MIROC-ES2L) and eight EMICs from EMIC-AR5 (Eby et al. 2013; Zickfeld et al. 2013). Gray-filled circles represent the time when the CO₂ concentration reaches about 2 × CO₂ level in 1pctCO2 (calculated as the average of years 61–80); black-filled circles represent the final condition of the FULL^{2 × CO2} experiment (calculated as the average of years 981–1000). Red, blue, and orange arrows indicate the unrealized warming (ΔT^UNR), unrealized C uptake (ΔC^UNR), and additional C uptake (ΔC^ADD), as defined in Fig. 4