Typhoon-induced sea surface cooling during the 2011 and 2012 typhoon seasons: observational evidence and numerical investigations of the sea surface cooling effect using typhoon simulations
© Wada et al.; licensee Springer. 2014
Received: 2 December 2013
Accepted: 29 May 2014
Published: 10 June 2014
Understanding oceanic responses to typhoons and the impacts those responses have on the typhoons themselves is important so that typhoon predictions performed using numerical models and typhoon forecasts can be improved. However, in situ oceanic observations underneath typhoons are still limited. To gain a deep understanding of the oceanic response and estimate the magnitude of its impact, three profiling floats were deployed in the western North Pacific during the 2011 and 2012 typhoon seasons. The daily observations showed that the sea surface cooled by more than 2°C in typhoons Ma-on and Muifa in 2011, and typhoons Bolaven and Parapiroon in 2012. The response was different at different float locations relative to the typhoon center, that is, the response within 100 km of the typhoon center was different to the response more than 100 km from the center on the right- or left-hand sides of the typhoon track, even though the response was affected by pre-existing oceanic conditions, precipitation, and the typhoon intensity. The salinity and temperature profiles were also considerably different before, during, and after the passage of a typhoon. To determine the impacts of typhoon-induced sea surface cooling on typhoon predictions, the impacts of the four typhoons were numerically evaluated using an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model. The coupled model simulated sea surface cooling and the resultant increases in the central pressures caused by the passages of the typhoons reasonably well. When axisymmetrically simulated, the mean sea surface cooling beneath a typhoon decreased the latent heat fluxes by 24% to 47%. A larger cooling effect gave a larger decrease in the latent heat flux only during the intensification phase. The decrease in the latent heat flux affected the inner core structure, particularly in the inflow boundary layer and around the eyewall. The cooling effect significantly affected the track simulation only for Typhoon Muifa, which had the weakest zonal steering flow of the four typhoons. These results suggest that making more frequent typhoon observations using profiling floats, further developing oceanic analysis techniques, and improving our understanding of typhoon-ocean interactions are required to produce more accurate typhoon predictions.
KeywordsTyphoon Profiling float Sea surface cooling Latent heat flux Atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model
Advances in observational technologies, data assimilation systems, and numerical modeling have made it possible to predict tropical cyclones (TCs) more precisely than was previously the case. Little progress has been made, however, in predicting TC intensities, despite notable improvements in TC track predictions in recent decades. In particular, the dynamics and thermodynamics associated with rapid intensification are not well understood, and simulations using numerical prediction systems sometimes overestimate or underestimate TC intensities and intensification rates. It has previously been stated that understanding interactions between TCs and the ocean is crucial to decreasing the extent of the overestimations that are currently made of TC intensities (Bender et al. 1993; Shade and Emanuel 1999) and intensification rates (Wada 2009).
A TC will induce sea surface cooling in its wake (Price 1981; Wada 2002; Walker et al. 2005; D’Asaro et al. 2011; Pun et al. 2011; Jeong et al. 2013). This and other oceanic responses to a TC have been the subjects of numerous studies (e.g., Shay 2010), and highly complex physical processes associated with typhoon-ocean interactions have recently been investigated in a large typhoon-ocean field experiment (‘Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific’) (D’Asaro et al. 2011; Pun et al. 2011). In the western North Pacific, TCs with maximum sustained wind speeds exceeding approximately 33 m s−1 are called ‘typhoons,’ and the Japanese term taifu means a TC with a maximum sustained wind speed exceeding approximately 17 m s−1. It has previously been reported that TC-induced sea surface cooling is mainly caused by Ekman upwelling and vertical turbulent mixing (Price 1981; Wada et al. 2009a; Sanford et al. 2011). The rate of entrainment at the base of the mixed layer caused by the passage of a TC is primarily determined by different horizontal current speeds at different depths across the base (Price 1981; Sanford et al. 2007). Wada et al. (2010) suggested that vertical turbulent mixing caused by breaking surface waves caused by a TC also plays an important role in sea surface cooling. The effect of vertical turbulent mixing on TC-induced sea surface cooling depends very much on the speed at which the TC moves (Wada et al. 2009a; Lin 2012).
Sea surface cooling induced by a TC is also affected by pre-existing oceanic conditions such as the depth of the mixed layer and the temperature gradient within the underlying thermocline (Price 1981; Wada 2002; Moon and Kwon 2012). In particular, the passage of a TC over a warm eddy will decrease the magnitude of the sea surface cooling that occurs (Wu et al. 2007; Wada et al. 2010). The presence of a warm eddy beneath a TC will, therefore, enable the TC to become intensified more rapidly than would be the case otherwise, because the air-sea sensible and latent heat fluxes increase rapidly (Lin et al. 2005, 2008, 2009; Wada and Usui 2007; Shay 2010). It can be seen that the mechanisms involved in TC-induced sea surface cooling are complex and depend on various factors, such as the TC intensity, translation speed, and size, and on pre-existing oceanic conditions such as the depth of the mixed layer and the temperature gradient within the underlying seasonal thermocline. In situ observations underneath a TC are, therefore, needed to allow the mechanisms involved in TC-induced sea surface cooling to be determined.
Decreased enthalpy (sensible and latent heat) fluxes underneath a TC are caused by TC-induced sea surface cooling. Cione and Uhlhorn (2003) found that sea surface cooling of approximately 1°C within the inner core of a TC can effectively alter the maximum total enthalpy flux by 40% or more. A lower translation speed will cause a much higher enthalpy flux to be required to maintain the intensity of an intense TC (Lin et al. 2009). However, the dependence of the decrease in enthalpy (particularly latent heat) flux within the inner core on TC-induced sea surface cooling has not yet been effectively determined.
The atmospheric response to TC-induced sea surface cooling and the impact such a response has on an idealized TC-like vortex has been investigated using atmosphere-ocean coupled models (Chang and Anthes 1979; Zhu et al. 2004; Wu et al. 2005; Bender et al. 2007; Wada 2009), and an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model has recently been developed to numerically simulate TCs (Chen et al. 2007, 2013; Wada et al. 2010, 2013; Warner et al. 2010). It has been shown in numerical experiments that TC-induced sea surface cooling leads to the suppression of the intensity of an idealized TC-like vortex, resulting in decreased latent heat fluxes within the inner core of the vortex and increased inner-core asymmetries (Zhu et al. 2004; Wu et al. 2005). However, the effects of interactions between the atmospheric and oceanic environments on TC evolution were not examined using these idealized numerical experiments. Numerical simulations of TCs using atmosphere-wave-ocean models have, so far, provided only preliminary results. The degree to which TC-induced sea surface cooling and the associated decreased latent heat flux affects the intensity of a TC in realistic atmospheric and oceanic environments is still uncertain, as is how the sea surface cooling and decreased latent heat flux affect the inner core structure of a TC.
This study aims to present the following: first, to determine the oceanic response to the passage of a typhoon using daily in situ observations made by profiling floats deployed in the western North Pacific Ocean and second, to quantitatively evaluate the effect of the oceanic response on the typhoon predictions produced using an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model, especially when the observed extent of sea surface cooling exceeded 2°C. The observations made by the profiling floats will be outlined in the next subsection.
Observations made by profiling floats during the 2011 and 2012 typhoon seasons
In this study, TCs with maximum wind speeds exceeding approximately 17 m s−1 (called taifu in Japanese, as mentioned above) are categorized as typhoons. Each typhoon is referred to by its number, Tyynn, where yy are the last two digits of the year and nn is the sequential number for the typhoon in that typhoon season. Five typhoons, Ma-on (T1106), Muifa (T1109), Talas (T1112), Kulap (T1114), and Roke (T1115), passed over the area monitored by the floats (around 17°N to 27°N and 130°E to 140°E) during the 2011 typhoon season, and three typhoons, Bolaven (T1215), Sanba (T1216), and Prapiroon (T1221), passed over the area monitored by the floats (around 20°N to 27°N and 125°E to 135°E) during the 2012 typhoon season (Figure 1).
Typhoons and the maximum sea surface cooling observed during the typhoons by the profiling floats
Maximum sea surface cooling (°C) (float ID)
15 to 18 July 2011
31 July to 3 August 2011
24 to 30 August 2011
6 to 8 September 2011
10 to 19 September 2011
23 to 26 August 2012
14 to 16 September 2012
12 to 17 October 2012
Regarding the relationship between the maximum amount of sea surface cooling and the TC, it has been suggested that TC-induced sea surface cooling of more than 2.5°C will not cause the intensification of a TC because this degree of cooling should be sufficient to shut down the entire energy production process of the TC (Emanuel 1999; Emanuel et al. 2004; Lin et al. 2008). The amount of cooling that occurred during typhoons T1106, T1109, and T1221 exceeded this threshold (Table 1), and the sea surface was cooled by 2°C, which is close to the threshold, during typhoon T1215. We will later assess the changes in water temperature and salinity profiles during the passage of four typhoons (T1106, T1109, T1215, and T1221) and perform numerical simulations of the typhoons using an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model.
Vertical profiles of the water temperature and salinity were obtained from three profiling floats during their ascents. Real-time quality control was performed before the data were made available on the Japan Argo Real Time Data Base (http://argo.kishou.go.jp/index.html), which is operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, from which the data used in this study were taken. Daily water temperature and salinity observations made by the three profiling floats were interpolated from the subsurface (at a depth of nearly 5 m) to a depth of 200 m using the method developed by Akima (1970). The temperature and salinity between the surface and a depth of 5 m were assumed to be constant, because no surface observations were made by the profiling floats. The maximum sea surface cooling values (Table 1) were calculated from the water temperatures observed at a depth of 5 m during each analysis period. This method is valid when surface wind speeds are higher than approximately 7 m s−1 (Soloviev and Lukas 2006; Kawai and Wada 2007). Soloviev and Lukas (2006) showed that the water was well mixed (in terms of temperature) between the subsurface and a depth of 5 m under relatively strong winds (approximately 7 m s−1) in the Pacific warm pool during the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment.
The mixed layer was defined as the water down to a depth at which the density was 0.25 g m−3 higher than the density at the surface, whereas the isothermal layer was defined as the water down to a depth at which the temperature was 0.5°C different from the temperature at the surface.
Specifications of the coupled model and the experimental design for the simulations
Horizontal grid number
1,391 × 1,201
1,101 × 1,101
1,291 × 1,021
701 × 701
Vertical grid number
Time step (atmosphere model)
Lateral boundary relaxation sponge layers
Oceanic initial condition
MOVE 0.5° (0.1°)
Surface roughness length
Surface boundary layer
Louis et al. (1982)
Atmospheric boundary process
Explicit three-ice bulk microphysics (Lin et al. 1983)
Sugi et al. (1990)
The JMA third-generation ocean-wave model was coupled with the NHM to estimate changes in the surface roughness lengths, drag coefficients, and enthalpy coefficients. The wave spectrum in the third-generation ocean-wave model had 900 components, each associated with one of 25 frequencies and one of 36 directions. The frequency of the wave spectrum was divided logarithmically from 0.0375 to 0.3000 Hz. The ocean was assumed to be motionless at the initial time. Wada et al. (2010) described the wave-ocean coupling procedure in detail.
The multilayer ocean model used a decreased gravity approximation and a hydrostatic approximation, and it was assumed that the water was a Boussinesq fluid. The model had three layers and four levels. The uppermost layer was the mixed layer, where the density was vertically uniform. The middle layer was the seasonal thermocline, where the vertical temperature gradient was greatest. The bottom layer was assumed to be undisturbed by entrainment. The four levels were the sea surface, the mixed layer base, the thermocline base, and the sea bottom. The degree of entrainment was calculated using the multi-limit entrainment formula proposed by Deardorff (1983) and modified by Wada et al. (2009a). The model calculated the water temperature and salinity at the surface and at the base of the mixed layer, and the thickness of each layer and the two-dimensional flows in the layers. The model could simulate near-inertial currents behind a TC reasonably well (Wada 2002).
The atmosphere-ocean coupling procedure is described next. Short- and long-wavelength radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, wind stresses, and precipitation were calculated by the atmospheric model and supplied to the ocean model at every time step in the ocean model. Land and sea distributions, extracted from the Global TOPOgraphic 30 digital elevation data produced by the US Geological Survey, were provided by the atmosphere model to the ocean model only at the initial time, to ensure that the land and sea distributions in the atmosphere and ocean models matched. The topography of the ocean bottom at 5′ latitude and longitude intervals was used in the ocean model, and these data were taken from the Earth Topography Digital Dataset 5 provided by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. The sea surface temperature calculated by the ocean model was provided to the atmospheric model at every time step in the ocean model.
The experimental design used in the numerical simulations of T1106, T1109, T1215, and T1221 are summarized in Table 2. The horizontal resolution of each typhoon simulation performed by the NHM was applied to the ocean-wave model and the multilayer ocean model. The vertical coordinates used in all of the NHM and coupled model experiments had 40 vertical levels, with different intervals ranging from 40 m for the lowermost (near-surface) layer to 1,180 m for the uppermost layer. The time step used in the ocean model was six times the time step used in the atmosphere model, and the time step used in all of the ocean-wave model experiments was 10 min.
The initial oceanic conditions were derived from the MRI Ocean Variational Estimation (MOVE) system (Usui et al. 2006). The MOVE system directly assimilates sea level height anomalies observed by a satellite-borne altimeter (http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/). The initial depth of the oceanic mixed layer was determined from oceanic reanalysis data by defining the mixed layer as reaching a depth at which the density was no more than 0.25 kg m−3 higher than the density at the surface and having a maximum depth of 200 m. The base of the thermocline was limited to 600 m, whereas the water depth was limited to 2,000 m. The integration time was relatively short, so open oceanic boundaries were used in a series of numerical simulations.
The initial atmospheric conditions and the boundary conditions were derived from six-hourly global objective analysis data provided by the JMA, with a grid spacing of 20 km. Lateral boundary conditions were provided to the computational domain every 6 h, and an appropriate domain width was set for each typhoon simulation (see Table 2). The experimental design used for the numerical simulations of T1106, T1109, T1215, and T1221, and the physical processes used in the NHM are shown in Table 2. The experimental design used for T1221L was the same as the design used for T1221H, except for the horizontal resolution of the MOVE data, which was 0.5° latitude and longitude (calculated using the North Pacific version of MOVE) for T1221L and 0.1° latitude and longitude (calculated using the western North Pacific version of MOVE) for T1221H (Usui et al. 2006).
Results and discussion
Observational evidence for the oceanic response to typhoons
In situ observations made by autonomous oceanic profiling floats have been used to investigate the oceanic response to a typhoon in previous studies. Wada et al. (2009b) found that vertical water temperature profiles obtained at 10-day intervals were clearly affected by the passage of a typhoon and that the change was dependent on the position of the profiling float relative to the typhoon track. Baranowski et al. (2011) found that the passage of two consecutive typhoons, Hagupit and Jangmi, in 2008, caused changes in the oceanic mixed layer. The in situ observations that showed these changes were made by an autonomous oceanic profiling float operating on a cycle with a period of approximately 1 day, and the authors showed that more frequent profiling (at least once a day) is required to allow variations in the water temperature and salinity in the upper ocean caused by the passage of a TC to be studied.
Two essential processes must be taken into account when assessing the oceanic response to a typhoon. First, vertical turbulent mixing occurs beneath a typhoon. In the Northern Hemisphere, this entrainment occurs more strongly on the right-hand side of the typhoon track (relative to the direction the typhoon moves), where the shear induced by near-inertial currents is stronger (Price 1981; Nam et al. 2012). Second, upwelling occurs behind a typhoon because of the cyclonic circulation of the surface winds (Price 1981; Wada 2002). When the translation speed of a typhoon is lower than the phase speed of the first baroclinic mode, this upwelling plays an essential role in causing sea surface cooling because a cold wake is formed behind the typhoon (Shay et al. 1998).
Cione and Uhlhorn (2003) found differences between inner-core and ambient sea surface temperatures of approximately 0°C to 2°C. These differences are much smaller than the cold-wake-like decrease in the sea surface temperature of 4°C to 5°C, which is typically observed. Our findings were consistent with those of Cione and Uhlhorn (2003). During the passage of a typhoon, the inner-core sea surface temperature is mainly determined by vertical turbulent mixing, irrespective of the position relative to the typhoon center. In fact, the vertical water temperature and salinity profiles we found demonstrate that the mixed layer, determined from both the water temperature and the salinity, becomes deeper almost the entire time that a typhoon passes over. However, in our analysis, we did not take into account the effect of the translation speed of the typhoon on vertical turbulent mixing, even though the translation speed is known to be important to the oceanic response to a typhoon (Lin et al. 2009) and certainly affected changes in the vertical water temperature and salinity profiles for T1221 (Figures 5b and 6b). It will be necessary to further explore the relationship between the translation speed of a typhoon and the different oceanic responses to the typhoon at different positions relative to the center.
The results of this study imply that the oceanic response to a typhoon is influenced by pre-existing oceanic conditions. In fact, Figure 2 shows that the water on the right-hand side of the tracks of some of the typhoons was much colder than the water on the left-hand side before the typhoons passed, which is confirmed by Figures 6 and 7. In that sense, the contribution of cool conditions to strong sea surface cooling is not negligible. A strong cooling effect depends, to some extent, on the location relative to the typhoon, especially when warming or cooling occurs in the seasonal thermocline; however, the cooling effect is also partly caused by differences in pre-existing oceanic vertical profiles. To explore this subject more thoroughly, many more in situ observations underneath typhoons, with different pre-existing oceanic conditions, will be required. That is beyond the scope of this study, but such a study should be performed in the future.
Typhoon track, central pressure, and sea surface temperature
Maximum sea surface cooling effects
Location of float ID
Max. cooling (model)
Max. cooling (TMI/AMSRE)
The simulated sea surface cooling induced by the typhoon began to have an impact on the simulated central pressure during the intensification phase for all four typhoons. The central pressures for T1106 (Figure 9a) and T1221 (Figure 9d) simulated using the uncoupled model were lower than the RSMC-Tokyo best-track central pressures, particularly during the mature phase. The central pressure for T1215 (Figure 9c) simulated using the coupled model was lower than the RSMC-Tokyo best-track central pressure at around 0000 UTC on 25 August 2011 during the rapid intensification phase. This low central pressure was caused by an error in the track simulation (Figure 8c). During the intensification phase, in contrast, the central pressures simulated using the uncoupled model were much higher than the best-track central pressures for T1109 (Figure 9b). The central pressures simulated using the coupled model were higher than the central pressures simulated using the uncoupled model for all of the typhoons. This result, which shows that the simulated sea surface cooling induced by the typhoons decreased the magnitude of the TC intensification and the final (maximum) intensity, is consistent with the results of previous studies (Bender et al. 1993; Shade and Emanuel 1999; Wada 2009). This negative-feedback effect, however, did not improve the central pressure simulations, particularly in the rapid intensification phase, for the typhoons that were studied.
In addition, the impact of the horizontal resolution of the MOVE data on both the track (Figure 8d) and central pressure simulations for T1221 was small (T1221L and T1221H; Table 2 and Figure 9d). This is also consistent with previous findings (Wada et al. 2013). This suggests that the impact of the horizontal resolution difference in the oceanic analysis data on the typhoon simulation was negligible.
Simulated sea surface cooling and latent heat fluxes
From the viewpoint of dynamics, sea surface cooling beneath a typhoon plays an essential role in delaying the merger of mesovortices within the inner core (Wada 2009). From the viewpoint of thermodynamics, typhoon-induced sea surface cooling leads to decreases in the latent heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere. In this subsection, we will assess how typhoon-induced sea surface cooling affects the typhoon from the viewpoints of both dynamics and thermodynamics. Because latent heat fluxes are much higher than sensible heat fluxes over the ocean, we will focus on latent heat fluxes within the inner core of a typhoon, the inner core being defined as the region from the center of the typhoon to a radius of 200 km.
We will consider the axisymmetrical mean profiles of the sea surface temperature and the latent heat flux within the inner core at 24, 48, and 72 h, because the axisymmetric sea surface cooling effect during the intensification phase plays a decisive role in weakening the typhoon intensity, despite its relatively small magnitude compared with the asymmetric component of sea surface cooling after the passage of the typhoon (Wu et al. 2005). The three integration times we will use correspond to the intensification or mature phases of the typhoons we studied, except for T1221, which was transitioning from the mature phase to the decaying phase at 72 h. The bin sizes used when calculating the axisymmetrical mean values were 4 km for T1106, T1109, and T1215, and 6 km for T1221L and T1221H.
Axisymmetrical mean latent heat fluxes and sea surface cooling effects for T1106 and T1109
Latent heat flux (uncoupled; W m−2)
Latent heat flux (coupled; W m−2)
Sea surface cooling (°C)
Latent heat flux (uncoupled W m−2)
Latent heat flux (coupled; W m−2)
Sea surface cooling (°C)
Axisymmetrical mean latent heat fluxes and sea surface cooling effects for T1215, T1221L, and T1221H
Latent heat flux (uncoupled; W m−2)
Latent heat flux (coupled; W m−2)
Sea surface cooling (°C)
Latent heat flux (uncoupled; W m−2)
Latent heat flux (couple; W m−2)
Sea surface cooling (°C)
Latent heat flux (uncoupled; W m−2)
Latent heat flux (coupled; W m−2)
Sea surface cooling (°C)
Even though a sophisticated atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model was used for the typhoon simulations, the track (Figure 8) and intensity (Figure 9) simulations were not necessarily improved. In particular, rapid intensification in T1109 and T1215 was not successfully simulated even when the horizontal resolution was 2 km. Much higher enthalpy fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere could be realized in the coupled model by introducing sea spray parameters (e.g., Bao et al. 2000), for example. Not only fine horizontal resolution but also improvements in the atmospheric physics used in the atmosphere model will be required to improve the typhoon predictions. In addition, uncertainties still remain in the initial and lateral boundary conditions in the atmosphere and ocean in the typhoon simulations. Solving these modeling problems will help clarify the mechanism involved in typhoon-induced sea surface cooling.
The oceanic response to a typhoon was examined according to the position of the float relative to the best-track typhoon center. Even though the oceanic response was affected by pre-existing oceanic conditions, precipitation accompanying the typhoon, the typhoon intensity, and the translation speed, the oceanic response clearly differed depending on the relative position studied. Upwelling was found to be dominant in the vicinity of the typhoon center, and the water temperature decreased from the surface to 200-m deep after the passage of a typhoon. Vertical turbulent mixing led to warming in the seasonal thermocline on the right-hand side of the typhoon track at a distance of 100 km or more from the typhoon center, whereas the oceanic response caused by vertical turbulent mixing was relatively weak on the left-hand side. Changes in the observed salinity profiles clearly differed from the changes in observed temperature profiles near the surface both before and after the passage of a typhoon in the vicinity of the center of the typhoon and on the right-hand side. This was found to be caused by stratification caused by the precipitation that accompanies typhoons and upwelled saline water in the seasonal thermocline. Deepening of the mixed layer caused by vertical turbulent mixing was clearly apparent in the temperature and salinity profiles during the passage of a typhoon.
Numerical simulations of typhoons Ma-on (T1106), Muifa (T1109), Bolaven (T1215), and Prapiroon (T1221) showed that typhoon-induced sea surface cooling significantly affected the extent to which simulated central pressures increased during the intensification and mature phases of the typhoons. Sea surface cooling also affected the track simulation of T1109 under weak basic flow because the weakened typhoon intensity altered the beta effect and changed the depth-weighted steering flows. Sea surface cooling beneath a typhoon led to axisymmetrical decreases in the latent heat fluxes of 24% (in the intensification phase, with sea surface cooling of less than 1°C) to 47% (in the mature phase, with sea surface cooling of more than 1°C). The decreases in the latent heat fluxes led to changes in the inner core structure of T1109, particularly in the inflow boundary layer and around the eye and eyewall, through changes in secondary circulation.
AW is a senior researcher in the Typhoon Research Department of the Meteorological Research Institute. TU and SI are technical officers in the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth observing system
Archiving: Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data
Japan Meteorological Agency
Meteorological Research Institute Ocean Variational Estimation
Meteorological Research Institute
Nonhydrostatic atmosphere model
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Regional Specialized Meteorological Center-Tokyo
Tropical rainfall measuring mission microwave imager
World Meteorological Organization.
All authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their thorough and helpful reviews. All authors are grateful to colleagues for observational and analysis support. This work was funded by KAKENHI Grant Number 25106708 from MEXT.
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