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Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
Fig. 3 | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

Fig. 3

From: Interannual variation of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern modulated by Ural blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation under changing sea ice conditions

Fig. 3

Simulated WACE pattern and member selection. a Regression patterns of winter SAT (shading; °C), SLP (contour; hPa; 0.2 intervals with negative values shown by dashed lines), and 850-hPa wind (vector; m/s) anomalies against the member-concatenated simulated WACE index during 1979/1980–2019/2020. The specified value denotes the explained variance ratio. b Interannual variation of observed and simulated WACE index. Blue and black lines denote the observed WACE index and WACE index for the 100-member ensemble mean, respectively; 25th–75th percentiles and 5th–95th percentiles of the ensemble spread are indicated by dark and light shading, respectively. Numbers in parentheses denote the WACE index trend (σ/decade) during the study period. c Histogram of the interannual correlation coefficient between the observed WACE index and simulated WACE index for each member. Green and orange bars denote the 10 members of the high-correlation (HC) group and the 10 members of the low-correlation (LC) group, respectively. d Interannual variation of WACE index for the observation, high-correlation group, and low-correlation group. The blue line denotes the observed WACE index; thin and thick green lines denote the 10 members of the high-correlation group and their average, respectively; thin and thick orange lines denote the 10 members of the low-correlation group and their average, respectively

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