Fig. 3

Temporal distribution of slip deficits obtained using the friction model shown in Fig. 2. a Temporal distribution of simulated slip deficits over a 3300-year period at a point within the M ~ 9 source area (black) and Miyagi-ken-Oki (MYG) source area (magenta) at the locations of the crosses shown in Fig. 2. Cycles 1–4 (light gray lines) represent a period from one M ~ 9 earthquake to the next M ~ 9 earthquake. The slip deficit in the M ~ 9 area was set to zero when the first M ~ 9 earthquake of Cycle 3 occurred (T = 1919.3 years), and the vertical axis is on the left. The slip deficit at the MYG area was set to zero when the MYG earthquake occurred immediately after the first M ~ 9 earthquake of Cycle 3 (T = 1968.7 years), and the vertical axis is on the right. b Temporal distribution of the simulated slip deficit at the cross in the MYG patch shown in Fig. 2a for a 1000-year period from 200 years before the occurrence time of each M ~ 9 earthquake in Cycles 1–4. The time when the slip deficit is zero differs from that in (a), and the slip deficit is a relative value for ease of viewing. The period combines the dark and light gray lines in (a). Horizontal axis (T′): 0 years at the time of the M ~ 9 earthquake, which is the start of each cycle. c Enlarged diagram of (b) for T′ = − 15 to 15 years