From: Cluster-based foreshock discrimination model with flexible time horizon and mainshock magnitudes
Foreshock probability | 0–10% | 10–20% | 20–30% | 30–40% | 40–50% | 50–60% | 60–70% | 70–80% | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N = 2 | All clusters | 469 | 489 | 220 | 59 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1253 |
Foreshock clusters | 27 | 67 | 45 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 162 | |
Portion of foreshocks (90% CI) | 6% (4–8%) | 14% (11–17%) | 20% (16–25%) | 29% (19–40%) | 29% (10–54%) | 100% (22–100%) | N/A | N/A | 13% | |
N = 5 | All clusters | 129 | 57 | 27 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 242 |
Foreshock clusters | 8 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 34 | |
Portion of foreshocks (90% CI) | 6% (3–11%) | 21% (13–32%) | 15% (4–34%) | 23% (7–49%) | 33% (10–66%) | 33% (2–86%) | 50% (3–97%) | 100% (22–100%) | 14% | |
N = 10 | All clusters | 68 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 91 |
Foreshock clusters | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | |
Portion of foreshocks (90% CI) | 7% (3–15%) | 43% (13–77%) | 33% (2–86%) | 40% (8–81%) | 75% (25–99%) | 50% (3–97%) | 0% (0–78%) | N/A | 16% | |
N = 20 | All clusters | 34 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 43 |
Foreshock clusters | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
Portion of foreshocks (90% CI) | 3% (0–13%) | 100% (5–100%) | 50% (3–97%) | 100% (5–100%) | N/A | 50% (3–97%) | N/A | 33% (2–86%) | 14% |