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Fig. 9 | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

Fig. 9

From: Forecasting tectonic tremor activity using a renewal process model

Fig. 9

Evaluation of the tidal stress effect on the tremor group centered at 34.10°N, 133.90°E. a Tidal stress level (black line) and timings of tremor events (red dots). b Histograms of the tidal stress level at this location for a 10-year period (blue) and timings of the tremor events (orange). c Probability density functions of the next tremor events that are estimated using renewal process models with (blue) and without (orange) tidal stress modulation. The circles with vertical bars show the timings of the tremor events. The red circle indicates the next tremor event to be forecasted. d Cumulative probability (black curve) of the occurrence of the next tremor after the reference time (00:00:00 on April 1, 2014). The light-gray and dark-gray bands represent the 68% and 95% prediction intervals for the timing of the next tremor events. The red vertical line shows the expected time of the next tremor event. The circles with vertical bars show the observed timing of the tremor events. The red circle indicates the next tremor event, which is the target of the forecast

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