Table 1 Impact of climate change on GDP

Stern (2007)

5–20%

BAU

Formal economic models

The costs of mitigation can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year. There has been criticism on the method of estimating damage and selection of parameter values, including the utility discount rate (see, for example, Cole 2008).

Burke et al. (2015)

23%

RCP8.5 (2100)

–

SSP^*5

Takakura et al. (2019)

6.6% (3.9–8.6%)

RCP8.5 (2100)

Five ESMs

SSP3, strict mitigation could limit the impact to less than 1%

Nordhaus (1994)

0.60%

2 °C increase

DICE

The reference reports a damage function with which we calculated the GDP impacts of 2 °C warming.

Nordhaus and Sztorc (2013), Nordhaus (2014)

1.10%

2°C increase

DICE

The reference reports a damage function with which we calculated the GDP impacts of 2 °C warming.

Tol (2018)

0.1–3.0%, 0.9–5.1%, 6.1–6.7%

2.5 °C, 2.9–3.2 °C, 5.4–6.0 °C

Summarizing 27 studies on the impact of the climate on the economy^a

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