d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

Table 1 Subsets of climate simulation experiments in d4PDF under different climate conditions. ΔT in the forth column means differences in past and future climatologies of SST and SIC computed from CMIP5 RCP8.5 experiments by six climate models (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-AO, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR, and MRI-CGCM3). Two numbers in brackets following ΔT indicate the year range for RCP8.5 SST trend used in the future climate simulation. The baseline of nonwarming SSTs is the climatology for the period from 1900 to 1919

Experiment	Ensemble members	Integration years/period	Boundary conditions	References
Past	100	From 1951 onward	Observed SSTs and SIC	Mizuta et al. (2017)
			(Hirahara et al. 2014)
Nonwarming	100	From 1951 onward	Detrended observed SSTs and SIC : \(\delta \intercal \)	Mizuta et al. (2017), Kawase et al. (2019)
+1.5 K future	54	29 years^*1	\(\delta \intercal \)(2020-2039) + \(\delta \intercal \)	Nosaka et al. (2020)
+2 K future	54	60 years	\(\delta \intercal \)(2030–2049) + \(\delta \intercal \)	Fujita et al. (2019)
+4 K future	90	60 years	\(\delta \intercal \)(2080–2099) + \(\delta \intercal \)	Mizuta et al. (2017)