Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

Table 4 Same as Table 3, but for the RCP2.6 scenario

	CO2 emissions [TgC or PgC]	CH4 emissions [GgCH₄ or TgCH₄]	Global mean temperature change [°C]	Reference
Dynamic, Direct	1 (0.4–2) TgC	48 (17–81) GgCH4	–	This study
Dynamic, Direct + secondary	0.07 (0.03–0.1) PgC	3 (1–5) TgCH4	–	This study
Total: Dynamic + Thermo-dynamic	21 (14–28) PgC	986 (618–1341) TgCH₄	0.05 (0.03–0.07)	This study
Total: Dynamic + Thermo-dynamic	22 (15–29) PgC		0.05 (0.03–0.07)	This study
Total: Previous studies	36 (20–58) PgC	446 (218–921) TgCH4	0.06 (0.03–0.10)	a
	103 PgC			b
	27 (6–62) PgC			d
	56 (13–118) PgC			h

References for the estimate in the previous studies are as follows. a: Schneider von Deimling et al. (2015), b: MacDougall et al. (2015), d: Gasser et al. (2018), h: MacDougall and Knutti (2016)