Skip to main content

Table 3 Future predictions of GHG emissions from permafrost degradation in the RCP8.5 scenario

From: Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model

 

CO2 emissions [TgC or PgC]

CH4 emissions [GgCH4 or TgCH4]

Global mean temperature change [°C]

Reference

Dynamic, Direct

3 (1–5) TgC

123 (43–203) TgCH4

–

This study

Dynamic, Direct + secondary

0.1 (0.04–0.2) PgC

5 (2–8) TgCH4

Total: Dynamic + Thermo-dynamic

47 (31–63) PgC

2067 (1261–2821) TgCH4

0.08 (0.05–0.11)

This study

48 (32–66) PgC

Total: previous studies

87 (42–141) PgC

1474 (836–2614) TgCH4

0.09 (0.05–0.14)

a

226 PgC

  

b

27 (− 41 to 95) PgC

 

c

59 (11–143) PgC

 

d

57 (28–113) PgC

 

e

37–174 PgC

 

f

37–343 PgC

0.29 (0.17–0.41)

g

  1. The cumulative CO2 and CH4 emissions are estimated at the end of twenty-first century. Direct emissions due to dynamic degradation, direct plus secondary emissions due to dynamic degradation, and total emissions due to dynamic plus thermodynamic degradation in the current study are shown (average value and 68th percentile range of model ensemble simulations). Some estimated values reported in previous studies are also shown in the far right column. References for the estimate in the previous studies are as follows. a: Schneider von Deimling et al. (2015), b: MacDougall et al. (2015), c: McGuire et al. (2018), d: Gasser et al. (2018), e: Koven et al. (2015), f: Schuur et al. (2015), g: Schaefer et al. (2014)