Fig. 2

Spatial distribution of the optimal maximum posterior estimates and their uncertainties of the HIST-ETAS model. a Common logarithm of the background seismicity rate \(\mu\). b Common logarithm of the purified aftershock productivity \({K \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {K {\left( {c^{p} d^{q} } \right)}}} \right. \kern-0pt} {\left( {c^{p} d^{q} } \right)}}\). c Standard deviations of the common logarithm of \(\mu\). d Standard deviations of the common logarithm of \({K \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {K {\left( {c^{p} d^{q} } \right)}}} \right. \kern-0pt} {\left( {c^{p} d^{q} } \right)}}\). Black dashed lines denote the Japan Trench axis. Blue solid lines denote the outer edge of the large coseismic slip zone of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, as proposed by Kato and Igarashi (2012). Blue dashed and dotted lines denote the iso-slip contours (15-m contour) that were estimated by Iinuma et al. (2012) and Yokota et al. (2011), respectively